PRLog (Press Release) – Apr 18, 2011 – We have revised up our real GDP growth projection for Mexico to 4.1% in 2011, from 3.4% previously, on the back of a stronger outlook for US demand and domestic commercial credit. Yet there is still insufficient evidence that this robust performance will spill over into stronger domestic demand beyond 2012, implying that Mexican growth over the long term will continue to underperform its historic average.
Our outlook for the Mexican consumer remains cautious, too. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains very wary, although there has been a slight improvement in this indicator over the past few months. Over the long term we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
Headline Industry Data
* Port of Manzanillo total tonnage in 2011 of 6.55%, with average annual growth of 9.11% during our forecast period * Port of Veracruz total tonnage in 2011 of 3.93%, with average annual growth of 5.71% during our forecast period * Port of Manzanillo container throughput in 2011 of 9.83%, with average annual growth of 12.97% during our forecast period * Port of Veracruz container throughput in 2011 of 5.37%, with average annual growth of 7.52% during our forecast period
Key Trends And Developments
Mexican Throughput Up On 2010 - According to figures from the Mexico's General Coordinator of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM), Mexican ports handled 307,206 containers in January 2011, an increase of 20% y-o-y. Most of this traffic was handled by the country's main container port, Manzanillo, which moved 126,300 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), an increase of 30% on January 2010 when it handled 96,900TEUs. Veracruz moved 55,661 containers in January, a y-o-y increase of 22.9%. The port of Lazero Cardenas handled 69,302TEUs, a y-o-y increase of 18.4%. Altamira handled 40,000TEUs, a y-o-y increase of 19.2%.
Tuxpan Development Announced As Mexico Pushes To Increase Port Funding - A new project at the port of Tuxpan involves the construction of a new greenfield 51,520m2 cargo terminal container facility with a capacity of 90,000 TEUs per annum and a liquids terminal that is to be used by Pemex. The development is designed to take the traffic that cannot be handled by the existing terminal because of its shallow depth, whic 2011 Dodge Durango R / T h offers limited access to ships. Liquids currently have to be transported from vessels to land via 8km of floating hoses.
APM Terminal Continu first drive audi a6 es Latin America Expansion Drive, Eyes Lazaro Cardenas Concession - Lazaro Cardenas' port authority announced plans to launch a tender to concession a second terminal at the port earlier this year. The terminal will require an investment of US$465mn, and will have the capacity to handle 2mn TEUs per annum. BMI notes that the port has no congestion problems and offers the lowest dwell time of all Mexican ports. The port is well located, providing access to Mexico City and to Monterrey for the northern market. APM Terminal's regional manager for Latin America, Henrik Pederson, has confirmed that the Dutch company is interested in bidding to operate the container terminal.
Risks To Outlook
On the upside, our outlook for US consumers is now slightly more positive than initially expected. According to the US National Retail Federation (NRF), retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) for January increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from December and 3.5% unadjusted y-o-y. 'In spite of the economic uncertainties that still exist, consumers are clearly demonstrating their desire to spend on discretionary items once again', said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. This cautiously optimistic outlook ties in with BMI's view on US consmer spending in 2011. We have raised our 2011 US real GDP growth forecasts to 2.8% from 2.0%, with a significant lift in private consumption being the main driver. This is good news for Mexican port which import goods destined for the US.
On the downside, our outlook for Mexican consumers remains sluggish. Consumer confidence surveys suggest that the Mexican consumer remains very wary, although there has been a slight improvement in this indicator over the past few months. Over the long term we believe Mexican consumer demand will continue to be undermined by the lack of competitiveness in key sectors, lack of fiscal reform and overdependence on the US economic cycle.
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